Homelessness VS Population VS Housing

Australia’s homelessness has been rising since 2012. To better understand the cause, we examined the relationship between homelessness, population growth, and housing availability. Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), one possible reason may be the lasting effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

ABS figures show a sharp decline in the number of new homes built in 2012, which may have contributed to the ongoing housing shortage.

Graph of ABS data showing Australia’s population (yellow line) and total housing stock have steadily increased from 2001 to 2024 (green line), the number of new houses built (blue line dropped sharply around 2012 and never fully recovered. Homelessness has continued to rise (red line).

The graph illustrates that between 2001 and 2024, both Australia’s population (yellow line) and total housing stock (green line) have grown steadily. However, the number of new homes built each year (blue line) dropped sharply around 2012 and has not returned to previous levels. During this same period, homelessness (red line) has continued to rise.

Notably, the sharp decline in new housing construction around 2012 aligns with the point at which homelessness in Australia began increasing by the thousands, rather than decreasing.

Graph of ABS data showing Australia built a lot of homes in the 2000s, but had a sharp downturn in 2012 caused a persistent housing gap. Since then, homelessness has continued to rise.

Australia saw strong home construction throughout the 2000s, but a sharp decline in 2012 led to a long-term gap in housing supply (blue line). Since that point, homelessness has continued to rise (red line).

While the exact cause is not certain, there is reason to believe the GFC may have played a role. During the GFC, the Australian Government introduced stimulus measures that helped shield the economy. However, when these supports ended in 2012, confidence in the housing market dropped. As a result, fewer new homes were built, contributing to ongoing supply challenges.

Although Australia had the financial capacity to purchase building materials after the GFC, global supply shortages, particularly as the United States continued its recovery, made it difficult to source the materials needed for new housing construction.

Additional factors also contributed to the slowdown, including community resistance to new developments. The “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) movement, driven largely by the baby boomer generation, saw growing opposition to large-scale housing projects across many areas.

To support this article, data was sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and compiled into a custom dataset to help identify key trends and patterns.

Further Resources:

GRAPHS

DATA TABLE

YEAR	Houses Built	Houses Built Change	Houses Available Census	Houses Av. Cen+Proj	Houses (thousands)	House (th) Change	Population	Population (Thousands)	Population (th) Change	Homeless	Homeless Proj.	Homeless Change
2001	136,907	0.00%	7,790,079	7,790,079	7,790	0.00%	18,769,249	18,769	0.00%	99,900	99,900	0.00%
2002	134637	-1.66%		7,917,375	7,917	1.61%	19,757,900	19,758	5.00%		100,855	0.95%
2003	154720	14.92%		8,044,671	8,045	1.58%	20,008,700	20,009	1.25%		101,810	0.94%
2004	154000	-0.47%		8,171,967	8,172	1.56%	20,229,800	20,230	1.09%		102,766	0.93%
2005	157227	2.10%		8,299,263	8,299	1.53%	20,452,300	20,452	1.09%		103,721	0.92%
2006	152177	-3.21%	8,426,559	8,426,559	8,427	1.51%	20,061,646	20,062	-1.95%	104676	104,676	0.91%
2007	158536	4.18%		8,564,654	8,565	1.61%	21,181,000	21,181	5.28%		104140.8	-0.51%
2008	131681	-16.94%		8,702,749	8,703	1.59%	21,644,000	21,644	2.14%		103,606	-0.52%
2009	138211	4.96%		8,840,843	8,841	1.56%	22,155,000	22,155	2.31%		103070.4	-0.52%
2010	151892	9.90%		8,978,938	8,979	1.54%	22,477,400	22,477	1.43%		102,535	-0.52%
2011	149709	-1.44%	9,117,033	9,117,033	9,117	1.51%	22,485,300	22,485	0.04%	102,000	102000	-0.52%
2012	90,540	-39.52%		9,273,926	9,274	1.69%	22,683,600	22,684	0.87%		104,800	2.67%
2013	93912	3.72%		9,430,818	9,431	1.66%	23,319,400	23,319	2.73%		107600	2.60%
2014	100881	7.42%		9,587,711	9,588	1.64%	23,490,700	23,491	0.73%		110,400	2.54%
2015	115519	14.51%		9,744,603	9,745	1.61%	23,781,200	23,781	1.22%		113200	2.47%
2016	114089	-1.24%	9,901,496	9,901,496	9,901	1.58%	24,385,600	24,386	2.48%	116,000	116,000	2.41%
2017	112259	-1.60%		10,091,638	10,092	1.88%	24,770,700	24,771	1.55%		117,299	1.11%
2018	121241	8.00%		10,281,781	10,282	1.85%	25,180,200	25,180	1.63%		118,598	1.10%
2019	109426	-9.75%		10,471,923	10,472	1.82%	25,522,169	25,522	1.34%		119,896	1.08%
2020	104897	-4.14%		10,662,066	10,662	1.78%	25,687,041	25,687	0.64%		121,195	1.07%
2021	110600	5.44%	10,852,208	10,852,208	10,852	1.75%	25,422,788	25,423	-1.04%	122,494	122,494	1.06%
2022	114688	3.70%		10,999,572	11,000	1.34%	26,268,359	26,268	3.22%		123,793	1.05%
2023	114367	-0.28%		11,146,936	11,147	1.32%	26,966,789	26,967	2.59%		125,092	1.04%
2024	111652	-2.37%	11,294,300	11,294,300	11,294	1.30%	27,309,396	27,309	1.25%		126,390	1.03%